Mission Impossible 6: Finding Rooney's Best Position

2015 has produced a fantastic summer of sport. England winning the Ashes, Lewis Hamilton the British GP, Chris Froome the Tour de France, Britain beating France in the Davis Cup… they have all kept us hugely entertained in the last few months.

But let’s be honest we’re all glad the footy is back.

And the start to the football season wouldn’t be complete without Manchester United fans wondering how many burgers Wayne Rooney had during his summer break and where he should be playing in their team.

You're still discussing Rooney?!

Wait a minute I hear you say, as much as we enjoy this perennial discussion, hasn’t this already been finally settled?

The best pundit on our TV screens, Gary Neville made his opinion quite clear on the issue… and like you… I’m inclined to agree with most things he says and move on.

After constant calls for Rooney to be moved upfront last season he finally got his chance to spearhead United’s attack from late February onwards. This was helped by Robin van Persie’s injury problems and it becoming apparent that Radamel Falcao’s knee surgery meant he could no longer run very fast or kick a ball straight.

OMG I actually completed a pass!

On Monday Night Football, our man ‘G-Nev’ commented, “Wayne Rooney is proving that that is his best position… he’s proving that he’s Manchester United’s best striker and enjoying the role, scoring goals, it really has fallen into place”

England manager Roy Hodgson also seemed fairly clear when asked about the issue… “Well, he’s a goal-scorer, isn’t he? So one always likes to see one’s goal-scorers in positions where they can get into the box and in and around the box.”

Stupid question

And Rooney himself shared this opinion himself before the start of this season. “My best position, and I have always said it, is as a striker, getting into the box and scoring,' said Rooney. 'The two seasons I have really done that as a lone striker were my two best goal scoring seasons here… So hopefully if I play up there again this season then I can score the goals. It is where I like to play and I am sure it is where I will play. It is where the manager and myself see my best position.”

My philosophy - Kick the ball in that goal

And goal scoring is something Rooney certainly excels at – He is the Premier League’s 3rd highest ever goal scorer, and has Bobby Charlton’s Manchester United and England scoring records well within his sights.

Wayne, if the hair transplants stop working... wear this cap

It is generally considered an accepted fact that Rooney’s best season was 2009/10, the year after Ronaldo and Tevez left and before Javier Hernandez and Robin van Persie arrived. Rooney mostly operated at the top of the attack with Dimitar Bebatov either behind him or on the bench in the bigger matches. In terms of goal scoring Rooney was prolific, netting 34 times before injuring his ankle against Bayern Munich in March. However, United fell short in both the Premier League and Champions League that season, with the team ultimately too dependent on Rooney’s contribution.

Ankle injury or shot by a sniper?

The other season Rooney played at the top of the attack was 2011/12, when again he scored a superb 34 goals and received plaudits for his personal contribution. But once again United came 2nd in the Premier League and didn’t progress beyond the group stages of the Champions League.

Rio Ferdinand in his book ‘2 sides’ was fairly clear of his opinion on where Rooney should be playing but Rooney’s response is even more interesting. "He was top scorer in 2012, scored a hatful of goals up front on his own, as the number nine, which I think is his best position," Rio wrote.

"The following year he says 'I want to play number ten. I prefer it. I'm better a number 10.' I said to him 'you've just had your best year statistically and in terms of adulation and the media loving you. Why do you want to play ten??”

You want to do what? Are you Merking me lad?!

It was a moment of clarity from Rooney. Yes he had the adulation of being the top goal scorer but really was it his best position after having so much individual and collective success previously as a 10? And was Rio really correct in stating that it was his best year statistically? Let’s look at his output in the Premier League since 2006…

In terms of pure goals he clearly was highly effective in that 2011/12 season, but even with some basic secondary school maths we can analyse Rio’s claim a bit closer.

Providing the finishing touch to goals is important, but equally so is creating them, so let’s consider both goals and assists. Next let’s remove penalties as they skew the numbers in years when Rooney wasn’t United’s penalty taker. And lastly, we need to adjust for minutes played to factor for missed games and give a true measure of effectiveness.

It’s clear to see that Rooney’s contribution to goals has actually been statistically very consistent, with a goal or assist every 100 or so minutes in all but the most recent season. In the 3 seasons where it appears his contribution appears slightly muted (2006/07, 2008/09 & 2010/11) United won the Premier League title and reached the Champions League final twice and the semi-final once – success in anyone’s eyes. 

What differentiated Rooney at his prime were his defensive contributions – those best appreciated when seeing a full game rather analysing statistics or watching the highlights on Match of the Day. Those who scoff at the suggestion that Rooney ranks among the World’s elite footballers, often overlook this side of his game. They prefer their attacking players to be midget sized magicians like Modric and Iniesta, an athletic Adonis like Bale, or possess the nonchalant flair of Neymar and Zlatan.

Fellaini, Rooney and Herrera 

(Messi and Ronaldo of course fit these descriptions, but not being from this planet, they can’t be compared to a mere mortal).

Rooney doesn’t fit this mould. He’s about as wide as he is tall; his barrel-chested physique makes him look like he lives on a diet of pies and chips, fish and chips, burgers and chips – really anything with chips. While his bubbling energy and fiery temper aren’t the hallmarks of a brooding artist.

But what Rooney gives you is a different type of No.10. Alongside his ability to use the ball and score goals he’s a player with the aggression, strength and desire to chase back and contest the midfield battle. For many years United seemed to be getting away without having a dominant ball winner in midfield and were able to make do with the likes of Carrick, Cleverly, and the aging Scholes and Giggs, due to Rooney’s effervescent and muscular contributions.

Thanks for doing our running lad...

Yes, he lacks the tactical discipline to provide the consistent shadowing presence required against a world-class deep-lying playmaker - like Busquets, Alonso or Pirlo. But contests of this nature are rare and his more instinctive force-of-nature approach is highly effective against the majority of opponents, especially in the less tactical, fast tempo matches seen on a Premier League weekend.

You can't touch this...

For all the praise showered on him for the goals he’s scored, it is in those seasons when he’s played deeper that he’s made his greatest contributions and United have won their trophies. 

Now this doesn’t mean Rooney can’t be a very effective lone striker if the team requires. However, Van Gaal’s current set-up doesn’t bring the best out of his captain in this position. When playing here under Ferguson his role was to make intelligent runs and feed off the supply from the natural crossers on the wings. He also sometimes played as a ‘false 9’ drawing centre backs out of position and creating space for the likes of Ronaldo and Tevez to exploit.

False what?

United currently have inverted wingers cutting in from the flanks - Memphis looking for shooting opportunities and Mata looking for through balls. If Ashley Young plays on the left, his whipped crosses to the back post are more suited to the late runs of and giant mop of Marouane Fellaini. Yes, he was shifted around the pitch a lot but his numbers are even since being moved upfront have been underwhelming, with no goals in his last 10 matches.

Rooney explained his role in Van Gaal’s system perfectly. "I was trying to stay high, trying to stretch the pitch and more leave the space for the midfield players… Which I think was being shown we were killing teams in midfield, in particular with Fellaini and Ashley Young.”

Wayne Rooney, the team’s best player and most clinical finisher, being used to create space for Fellaini and Young??

I carried you last season Wayne

Gary Neville on the aforementioned MNF after the Manchester City game lauded his performance, describing Rooney as ‘the silent dominator’. “If you look at the touches he had in the game, his average is 75-85 touches a game, he had 35 touches against City. It was his lowest in all his Premier League matches for United… But I think Louis van Gaal would have been happiest with him yesterday. The fact he held those two centre-backs central, kept those pockets open for Fellaini and Herrera”.

Definitely silent...

"He had a shot on target, so I am happy," Van Gaal said of Rooney’s contribution to United's 3-1 defeat of Club Brugge on Tuesday.

A shot on target? The highest paid player, England’s most talented player of his generation and the manager is happy because he managed a shot on target?

Any manager should be looking to get the best from his star player, not relegating him to the equivalent of a moving bollard. If Van Gaal wanted a striker who plays on the shoulder of the last defender waiting for intricate through balls then he should’ve kept the master of this art Robin van Persie. Success in such a role either requires the clever subtle movement that van Persie possesses or the pace and quick feet of someone like Sergio Aguero – at the moment Rooney seems to have neither.  

Aghhh my back!

There is no reason Rooney can’t adapt to the role over time, he’s a supremely talented footballer and his current malaise could be put down to early season rustiness. But, now that Van Gaal has signed some superb central midfielders and settled on a 4-2-3-1 formation that allows him to field a genuine no.10, Rooney should be moved back to the position of his shirt number.

Lads I think they've spelt my name wrong...

As ex-England boss Fabio Capello said, "Rooney is a versatile player but his best position is as a central striker, just behind the person who plays up front… That way he can play with his face to the goal rather than his back. You need someone more advanced but then the others can move around him.”

So while many United fans have been desperate for a new centre back it is really the striker position that Van Gaal needs to focus his efforts. If the likes of Lewandowski and Benzema are not available then he should still push hard for secondary targets, such as Cavani, Harry Kane or Romelu Lukaku. A midfield triumvirate of Bastian Scweinstiger, Morgan Schnedierlein and Rooney would give United the best central combination in the League and free their captain to be at the centre of the their attacking play. And crucially it would allow some rotation in the striking positions... currently it appears Rooney will have to shoulder the burden himself. 

Sch-pecial

As Paul Scholes said in his column in the Independent, “This is not an argument to say that Wayne is not a top striker. His record says that he is and in an ideal world, I would have two Waynes: one to hit those passes from deep and another to get on the end of them. He is the best passer in the team and he can play that role better than anyone.”

And Andy Cole, when discussing England’s options, added, "Wayne, of course, Wayne [is England's best striker]! He's a good striker, but he won't play that well as a number 9… He's not a good number 9 because he tends to explore the pitch, but he can still score goals.”

When Rooney's long-term credentials were questioned, Roy Keane simply said: ‘If you think Wayne Rooney’s gone, then you are sadly mistaken.'

And who’s going to argue with Keane… certainly not me.

England's Champions League failure - why has it all gone wrong?

We enjoyed the Champions League quarter-finals last week and for the first time since 1996 there was not a single team from England remaining at this stage of the competition – and that was the year Blackburn Rovers were our sole representative. Since then English clubs have taken up more quarter-final places (33) than any other country. 

Recent form has been exceptionally strong. In the 8 finals between 2005 and 2012 there was English representation in 7 of them (with 3 winners), and for 3 seasons between 2007 and 2009 3 of the 4 semi-finalists were from England. 

This year’s poor performance has occurred on the back of a disappointing tournament last season, where both Manchester clubs failed to progress from the group stages, and only Chelsea progressed to the quarter finals after a heroic comeback against Napoli in the last-16 before going on to an unlikely victory. 

Last year’s poor performance could have been seen a blip but two consecutive years potentially points to a genuine decline in standards. The question is where has this decline come from? 

First let’s debunk a few of the potential reasons put forward for the current decline.

Lack of a Winter Break?

Although still debated, it is likely that a mid-season break would help refresh teams and help them prepare for the second half of the season. However, the Premier League has never had one, and most managers have all but given up hope of one being introduced. Since Premier League clubs have had such a strong record in recent years without a winter break it is unlikely this can be given as a reason for the recent decline. In fact, the biggest improvers have been Germany, and their winter break has been shortened in recent years.

You call this footballing weather?

Lack of help with fixtures?

There is undoubtedly a lack of help from the Premier League when it comes to the fixtures before European games. For example, Manchester United had to play a 4pm Sunday fixture against Everton before their last-16 match against Real Madrid. Similarly last season, Chelsea had to play their FA Cup semi-final against Spurs at 6pm on the Sunday before their Champions League semi-final against Barcelona. 

Spanish, Italian, German and Portuguese teams regularly have their matches rescheduled to give them as much preparation time as possible before European fixtures, in Portugal their Champions League teams regularly play on Fridays before midweek European games. However, this disadvantage has always been in place so while it would help to change this situation, it cannot be the reason behind the current decline in performance.   

The Premier League's defensive failings?

There has been a lot of criticism in the last couple of seasons regarding the openness of matches in the Premier League. It has been suggested that while leading to an entertaining spectacle, there has been a decline in the standard of defending. The almost constant moaning of Hanson and Lawrenson has been added to by the impassioned but reasoned analysis of Gary Neville on Sky. 

They don't play like in our day Lawro

While it’s true that the average goals per game has been on a steady increase, the goals per game in the top 3 leagues is very similar – Premier League 2.83, La Liga 2.82 and the Bundesliga 2.84, and has been on the rise across the game. The decline in defending is a universal phenomenon, not a Premier League specific one.  

If you compare the top defenders of the previous generation (Cannavaro, Maldini, Stam, Nesta, Thuram, Campbell, Ferdinand etc) with those of today (Thiago Silva, Hummels, Pique, Kompany, Ramos, Chiellini), even when adjusted for a rose-tinted view of the past, it can be safely said that there has been a drop in individual defensive quality.

2006 Ballon D'or... Henry? Zidane? Ronaldinho? Nope, Cannavaro

This in not purely due to a drop in talent but also changes in the nature of the game. 

Firstly, tackling laws have become progressively stricter, meaning defenders have to be more careful and less physical in contesting the ball. Secondly, the increased pace of the game, especially the speed of passing, has meant the timing of challenges has become increasingly difficult.

Help I've been shot!

Thirdly, strikers have become cleverer in their movement. In the past defenders primarily had clearly defined points of attack to nullify. The traditional big no.9 and the penalty box poacher have been replaced by false-9s (Messi, Suarez, van Persie) and strikers starting from wide positions (Villa, Ronaldo, Muller), making attacking play far less predictable. This fluidity in movement has also meant an increased goal scoring threat from deeper position, with players such as, Fabregas, Mata, Ozil and Bale, often interchanging with central strikers, giving defenders more angles of attack to be concerned with.

The only Bale more dangerous than Messi and Ronaldo

The increase in squad rotation has also meant consistent reliable partnerships have been harder to build – Manchester United, Manchester City, Chelsea, Arsenal and Spurs have rarely fielded a consistent centre back combination this season.

And lastly, as ball retention has become more important, the footballing skills of defensive players have increased in value. So while Gerrard Pique might have been considered a flawed defender in previous era, his ability on the ball make him a highly prized asset in the modern game. This philosophy has been taken to such as extent that his Barcelona team has often used defensive midfield players such as Sergio Busquets and Javier Mascherano at centre back. 

Don't worry Sergio we're not actually here to do any defending

The Actual Reasons

So if it’s not a lack of a winter break, unhelpful scheduling and bad defending to blame, why have English team performed so poorly in the last two Champions Leagues?

1. Manchester City’s failings

The low hanging fruit in this analysis is Manchester City progress being below par for a variety of reasons.  

Although they have made a huge investment into their squad over the last few years, culminating in their Premier League victory in 2012, they are a club with relatively little recent European experience. While a number of their players, such as Yaya Toure, David Silva, Carlos Tevez, Samir Nasri and Sergio Aguero, had Champions League experience before joining the club, they hadn’t gathered that experience together. And Their English contingent of Joe Hart, Joleon Lescott, Gareth Barry and James Milner, had no previous experience of the competition before joining the club. 

Woo hoo, it's pay day

Their manager, Roberto Mancini has also had relatively little success in the Champions League. Despite winning 3 successive Scudetto with Inter, including a record breaking 97 points season, they only progressed to the Quarter-final stage of the Champions League on one occasion under his guidance. This record suggests a weakness when it comes to the more sophisticated tactical puzzles that European competition poses.

Balotelli: You want me to kick it in there?
Mancini: Yes, between those 2 posts

A final important factor in their lack of progress has been some difficult group stage opponents caused partly by their low UEFA ranking but mostly from bad luck in the draw. In last season’s competition, City were in pot 3, but drew a very strong Napoli team from pot 4 and Bayern Munich from pot 1. For this year’s competition they were in pot 2 but once again drew a powerhouse from pot 1 (Real Madrid) and, once again, the strongest opponent possible from pot 4 (Borussia Dortmund).

Knock-out blow

Although the expectations for them were to perform better, a combination of these three factors meant they have failed to achieve those targets. 

2. Managerial changes

While Mancini has a poor record in Europe, the reverse is true of Rafa Benitez and Jose Mourinho, and their loss from the Premier League was also likely a loss for their clubs performances in European competitions. In his 3 seasons at Valencia, Benitez reached the quarter finals of the UEFA cup and Champions League in his first 2 season, and then won the UEFA cup in his final season there. He then followed this up with victory in the 2005 Champions League with Liverpool, his tactical nous proving crucial to their progress with a fairly weak playing squad. He followed this up with another final in 2007 and a semi-final appearance in 2008.

Why won't anyone give me a job!

Mourinho too is a renowned European specialist, and although he never reached a Champions League final during his seasons in charge of Chelsea, he did make it to the semi-finals on 2 occasions, and the team he built also went onto reach the final in the season he was fired. Adding to the renowned abilities of Alex Ferguson and Arsene Wenger, there was a golden period of managerial quality in the Premier League’s ‘top 4’ in its period of greatest success. 

You're giving my job to that guy??!

3. The Growth in External Threats

Probably the biggest reason for the loss in quality of the top teams has been the growth outside the Premier League, especially of Real Madrid and Barcelona.

The two Spanish giants have worked very hard at increasing their commercial revenues in recent years, with Barcelona notably selling their shirt sponsorship for the first time in their history. However, the largest reason for the disparity is the fact Spanish clubs negotiate their TV deals individually and therefore allowing for a extremely disparate distribution of broadcasting revenues.

5 years ago Real’s revenue was the highest in Europe at €351m, with Barcelona 3^rd at €290m, just behind Manchester United who earned €315m. In comparison Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool were not that far behind with revenues of €283m, €264m and €207m respectively, and still therefore able to compete in the transfer market.

However, by 2012 Madrid revenues had reached €513m and Barcelona’s €483m. This far outstripped the Premier League’s closest top clubs with Manchester United coming closest with €396m and Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool only achieving modest growth over the last 5 years with 2012 revenues of  €323m, €290m and €233m.

This increased financial muscle of the Spanish giants has allowed them to take some of the Premier Leagues top talents, sometimes with very aggressive methods. They also benefitted from the 'Beckham Law' which meant high earning foreigners were taxed at lower tax rates (24%) than standard higher rate income tax (previously 45% and currently 52%).

Blimey 24% tax... Where do I sign?

Would Manchester United be a weak in recent years if they hadn't lost Cristiano Ronaldo to Real Madrid? Clearly not. Liverpool have obviously suffered from losses of Xabi Alonso and Javier Mascherano and similarly Luka Modric's move to Madrid was a huge blow to Tottenham's attempt to build a Champions League competing team. Arsenal's team in recent years was built around the playmaking talents of Cesc Fabregas, so his loss was a massive blow to their squad, and their lack of a combative midfielder this year was caused by the loss of Alex Song to Barcelona in the summer.  

€40m worth of Barcelona DNA 

Added to this has been the new inflow of money from wealthy owners at clubs such as PSG and in the emerging markets, especially Russia, Ukraine and Turkey. This has yet to cause the direct loss of players to these countries, but their financial muscle has meant players who Premier League clubs had been targeting to improve their squads have slipped their grasp. Three big examples of these would be Hulk choosing Zenit St. Petersburg over Chelsea, Lucas Moura choosing PSG over Manchester United, and Wesley Sneider deciding to move to Galatasaray over one of the many Premier League clubs who showed interest in him.

Money talks

4. Manchester City… again

You're blaming me again??

How do Manchester City feature twice is this analysis? Well while they have indeed under-performed in Europe, they have also done so while internally cannibalising their fellow Premier League rivals. 

Chelsea were the first megabucks club on the scene who sought quick growth by making a number of quick signings. But these recruits, such as Drogba, Essien, Carvelho, Shevchenko, Crespo, Makelele, Robben, Cech, Ferreria and Mutu, came from outside of the Premier League. 

And when they did sign players domestically, such as Joe Cole, Damien Duff, Scott Parker, Wayne Bridge and Shaun Wright-Phillips, it was from clubs from outside the top-6 elite, thus inflicting little or no damage to those English clubs playing in Europe at the time. In fact, by raising the standard of the competition they caused other clubs around them to raise their game and make similar big investments to compete.

Oh I miss the good old days...

City however made signings directly from the top 6, such as Adebayor, Kolo Toure, Tevez, Nasri, Clichy, Lescott, Milner and Barry, causing their rivals to be weakened. 

They also targeted players such as Wayne Rooney and John Terry, forcing their clubs had to use up large financial resources to keep hold of them. Would Manchester United have given Rooney his wage structure breaking deal without City on the scene? It's very unlikely, and they could have used that money for investment elsewhere. 

Both United and Chelsea have also had to pay larger transfer fees and wages for signings they have made in competition with City, such as van Persie, Berbatov, Ashley Young, Fernando Torres and Edin Hazard.   

The entry of City therefore has caused both an unsettling of Premier League squads and been a cost financially to the Premier League elite. 

5. Transition

The reasons preceding have meant that the top clubs are in a period of transition. City are still finding their way, building their squad and their experience of playing as a collective unit at the highest level. 

Chelsea's frequent managerial changes, coupled with a ageing old guard and an owner who desires a change in playing style has meant they have yet to build a new team who are yet to fully find the confidence and understanding to get consistent results playing a new style of football. Arsenal have been decimated by losing their top players to the competition both internally and abroad, causing them to rebuild their team year after year. 

Manchester United have handled this process the best, mainly because of their manager. They probably would have beaten Madrid but for a poor refereeing decision, and over the two legs their younger players such as Welbeck, Jones, Evans, Rafael and Cleverly played excellently. But the loss of Ronaldo to Real Madrid still leaves a shadow over them, and the signings they have brought in have yet to replace the impact he had when they were at their peak in 2007-08.  

The Future

Will things change or is the current lack of success something we should get used to? 

Looking at the factors that have caused the blip it seems likely there should be a turnaround in the next few years. Manchester City are slowly gaining experience and if Mancini fails to produce again he will likely be replaced with someone who likely to bring more success in Europe with names such as Jose Mourinho and Frank de Boer linked with the job. 

The managerial situation will be much harder to judge. Sir Alex could bring reign to an end at any point, while the lack of trophies at Arsenal is testing many supporters patience with Wenger. Both legendary figures will be hard to replace and could lead to a transitory phase at their clubs, but the structure and platform they have built should leave their successors in a position of strength. The situation at Chelsea can only get better from the current mayhem, while Spurs have in AVB a manager with previous success in Europe, having won the Europa League with Porto. And if Brendon Rodgers is half as good as he talks then Liverpool's rebuilding project will bear fruit in the next few years. 

In terms of revenues the Premier League clubs will on a strong footing going forward. The new TV deal starting next season is a significant step-up, and although the final figures are yet to be released it should result in the title winning club receiving around £100m, compared to the current £60m windfall. This would still be short of the money Barcelona and Madrid receive from their individual deals but it will close the gap significantly, and leave them less vulnerable to losing their best players. The success of the league globally has also meant the top clubs have been able to secure a number of lucrative commercial deals, with Manchester United's shirt sponsorship deal with Chevrolet and Arsenal's new deal with Emirates breaking new ground. 

The introduction of UEFA's Financial Fair Play regulations should also help the situation. Given the rules are based around revenue generation then Premier League clubs should be in a strong position given 7 of the current top 20 European clubs by revenue are from the Premier League. And assuming UEFA apply it strictly it should inhibit PSG's extravagant spending using funds from outside of the club. We have also seen it's impact in the more modest spending of Manchester City last summer, which should help minimise their cannibalisation impact going forward. 

All these factors should help with the current natural development of the playing squads, allowing them a period of stability and growth that should bode well for future performance. Yes the last two seasons have been disappointing and have marked the end of an era, but next year can be the beginning of a new one. 

Who was 2012's Golden Balls?

What a great 2012 it’s been. We’ve had the Diamond Jubilee and the Olympics, and for football lovers, Euro 2012, a dramatic Champions League, Real Madrid finally ousting Barcelona in la Liga, and probably the most exciting finish to a Premier League season ever.

 

Top banana

We have also been blessed with some prodigious individual performances over the last year, and these will be celebrated next week at the FIFA Ballon d’Or awards in Zurich. It’s pretty much impossible to be interested in football and not get drawn into the debate of who is the better player, Messi or Ronaldo. The Ballon d’Or gives us all an excuse to continue that debate, even if it does mean an opportunity for Sepp Blatter to make another messianic appearance and claim FIFA has significant relevance outside the World Cup.

FIFA is a clean organisation... honestly...

The Ballon d’Or was actually not a FIFA award until an aggressive takeover in 2010, when they bought the prize from the Amaury Publishing Group and merged it with its own World Player of the Year award. Apart from making the awards ceremony a horrible corporate event and an advert for FIFA, this change actually impacted the award itself. 

Unlike the old FIFA World Player of the Year award, which was voted by the coaches and captains of the international teams, the old Ballon d’Or, awarded between 1956 and 2009, was voted for exclusively by football journalists.

Journalists are naturally closer analysers of the game, and have more limited personal allegiances to the players involved. The FIFA award, therefore, always had an inherent bias towards the bigger name players and often had anomalies in the voting decisions.  

One example of this is the fact Paul Scholes, a player Zinedine Zidane described as ‘the complete footballer’, made the 50-man shortlist on five occasions (2000, 01, 03, 04 and 07), but never received a single vote. This wouldn’t seem that strange until you find out that Jan Koller, Papa Bouba Diop and Freddie Kanouté have. 

No idea who voted for me... oh maybe the Mali manager

In 1996, Matthias Sammer won the Ballon d’Or for his starting role in Germany’s triumph at Euro ’96 and a second successive Bundesliga title for Borussia Dortmund. The top 3 in the FIFA World Footballer of the Year, however, were Ronaldo, George Weah and Alan Shearer.

From humble sweeper to Ballon d'Or winner

Similarly, in 2003, Pavel Nedved won the Ballon d’Or for his instrumental role in Juventus winning Serie A and reaching the Champions League final. The top 3 in the FIFA award that year? Zidane, Thierry Henry and Ronaldo. 

Looking good

The electorate for the new FIFA Ballon d’Or is now a mix of journalists, national team coaches and national team captains. Has this altered the winner in the 2 years since FIFA bought the award?

Well, in 2010 Messi won the first new FIFA Ballon d’Or, ahead of Xavi and Iniesta. However, the journalists vote that year went to Wesley Sneijder, with Iniesta 2nd, Xavi 3rd, and Messi only in 4th place. 

Ha you guys win the World Cup but I'm still the best

 

Sneijder was truly outstanding in Inter’s treble winning campaign, and also scored 5 goals in driving Holland to the World Cup final in South Africa. For him to not even feature in the top 3 was bizarre to say the least, but points to the problem of the voting system.

What more do I have to do?

Messi, the Argentine captain, has a vote himself, and recently said, “I will vote for Xavi, Andres (Iniesta) and definitely one of my countrymen.” This is a clear admittance that votes from players and managers are clearly influenced by personal and political motives, and not purely an outside perspective on the best player for that year.   

What, I win all this just for being Argentinian?

Before I reveal my top 3 players of 2012 I should put down a few criteria for what I will base my selection on. Firstly, this is an individual not a team award, and therefore should go to the best player, not the player with the most medals in 2012. If that was the case Fernando Torres would have a case for winning the award given he won the Champions League, Euros and won the golden boot at the Euros. He also, however, spent most of 2012 unable to hit a barn door, so the Ballon d’Or will naturally be beyond his reach too.

Oh bugger, the goal's over there

Thus, an individual needs to be judged within the context of what they bring to their team, and how they have influenced its success. Their performance also needs to be judged in the context of the importance of the matches – big performances in big games, in high pressure situations, against tough opposition, should always carry more weight. Yes, consistency is also important, but it is those critical moments that are the difference between winning and losing, between great and very good.

For this reason, Lionel Messi does not feature in my top 3 players of 2012.

Don't worry Leo, I still love you

Messi is arguably the best player in the world currently, and potentially one of the greatest of all time. He has also had a superb 2012, scoring a record goals haul and breaking numerous individual records along the way. 

But, as brilliant and as consistent as he has been, he wasn’t able to raise his game when required and help Barcelona win a major trophy in 2012. And this is Barcelona team with a midfield of Xavi, Iniesta, Busquets and Fabregas controlling the ball and supplying the bullets for Messi to fire. A team described as potentially the greatest team of all time. 

I pass, he scores

  

In 2012 they lost their la Liga crown to Real Madrid by 9 points and crashed out of the Champions League to Chelsea in the semi-finals. While Messi scored numerous goals during the year, in Barcelona’s season defining games, the April Classico and those 2 semi-final matches against Chelsea, he failed to find the target, even missing a crucial penalty. 

Ouch

Yes he was the Champions League top scorer last season with 14 goals, but 5 of those goals came in a virtually dead last-16 2nd leg against Bayer Leverkusen and another 5 in group games against BATE Borisov and Viktoria Plzen. He was also the top scorer in la Liga with 50 goals, and had the 2nd most assists behind Mesut Ozil (16 to Ozil’s 17). 

High 5

But in the end, with all the talent in that Barcelona team, he wasn’t able to find raise his performance in those season-defining moments. 

The other reason Messi misses out on my list is because he didn’t have a major international tournament to participate in this year. If big game performances count more then every player in Euro 2012 had an edge – every game in a major international tournament is a big game.

His achievements in 2012, in the harsh light of day, end up being scoring a lot of goals against teams that are far weaker than his majestic Barcelona. Some of those performances were outstanding, but there were three even more outstanding players in the last 12 months.

3. Andrea Pirlo

For fans of midfield wizardry, there was no greater pleasure than watching Pirlo orchestrate the Italians towards the Euro 2012 final. In an era where athleticism and power are so prized, Pirlo showed that you didn’t need to have pace or be a great tackler to command the midfield zone. His range of passing was sublime and he effortlessly controlled the tempo of matches, while defending intelligently without needing to tear around the pitch.

Pirlo was central to almost everything good Italy did. He set up Di Natale’s goal in the opening game against Spain, he put Italy ahead in their next game against Croatia with a superb free-kick, and took the corner from which Cassano’s scored the opening goal in a tense final group game against Ireland. In the knock-out stages he totally ran the games against England and Germany, with a fine display of passing in both matches. Yes, he was overrun in the final but he was the tournament’s most consistent performer, and the reason Italy progressed much further than anyone had expected.

Try and get it lads

The Serie A season also came to be defined by Pirlo’s switch from Milan to Juventus. While Pirlo was obviously very highly rated at Milan, they preferred to move forward with industry, energy and youth. His consistency for Juventus was remarkable. With Claudio Marchisio and Arturo Vidal closing down opponents higher up the pitch, Pirlo had time and space in deeper positions, and dictated nearly every match he played in. Juventus not only won their 28th scudetto, but they also did so unbeaten, only the 3rd time that has even been achieved, and the first in a 38 game season. Not just did Pirlo control those games, he also topped the Serie A assists charts with 13. 

2. Andrés Iniesta

Iniesta had another superb season for Barcelona and Spain. He has always been a brilliant talent and a joy to watch, but he previously had a tendency drift in and out of games, and not be a central figure in his team’s successes. In the last few years, however, his consistency and influence have moved him from being a brilliant player to an important player, for both club and country.  

The fact Iniesta was voted the player of the Champions League and Euro 2012 shows just how much of a big game player he has become. In the Euros he was Spain’s key player from game 1, combining superbly with Jordi Alba on Spain’s left, and providing an incisiveness and drive that was often lacking in other parts of the pitch. 

Hmm, how many players can I take out of the game?

 Although Spain didn’t truly light up the tournament as most neutrals had hoped, he was their brightest diamond, and the most influential player in their attacking play. Although he didn't score in the tournament and only produced one assist, he was man-of-the-match in three of Spain's six matches, including the final against Italy. 

There was nothing to split my top two choices and it was only a penalty shoot-out that was the difference between Spain and Portugal reaching the Euro final. But for pure individual brilliance and for producing some outstanding displays in critical matches - there can only by one winner.

1.   Cristiano Ronaldo

Ronaldo is the complete footballer, the modern day machine. Big, strong, quick, he can dribble, he can shoot, has a powerful header, takes free-kicks. He drives through the pitch with the glide of a shark and the power of a bull, and then shimmies, faints and twinkles his restless toes like a flamenco dancer.  He is unmanufactured, a street footballer, producing explosive moments from nothing, with each moment in possession seemingly destined to result in a free-kick, a shot or a goal.  

Speed of a shark and looks like one too

Although Ronaldo has often been put in the shade by Messi’s achievements, it has been as much a case of Real Madrid being outshone by Barcelona. Ronaldo scored an outstanding 46 goals in la Liga last season to finally bring the title back to Madrid after 3 consecutive Barcelona triumphs. 

He has previously been described as a ‘flat-track bully’ for not contributing enough in bigger games, especially El Classico. However, in 2012, in matches against Barcelona, he scored in both legs of the Copa del Rey quarter finals, both legs of the Spanish Super Cup and both matches in la Liga, including the crucial title decider in April. That’s goals in 6 consecutive classicos, the first player ever to achieve that feat.

It's my time

What makes his achievements more astonishing is that his Real Madrid team is undoubtedly not the perfectly formed creative unit that Messi’s Barcelona is. As Jose Mourinho put it, "It is harder to be Cristiano than Messi. Messi grew up in the team where he plays, with the players with whom he plays. Not Cristiano. He was in England, then they put him here in a losing team. He had to grow over the last two years with this team which has been forming."

This is what I say to people who think Messi is best... He's no.2...

The whole Barcelona team is set up to maximize Messi’s genius and just about every player is creatively inclined, Jose Mourinho’s Real Madrid are built on the foundations of organisation and strength. This has doomed Ronaldo, unfairly in my opinion, to be seen as the inferior player, who plays a less attractive brand of football.

Remarkably Ronaldo has also achieved his incredible goal scoring record while playing from the left wing. While he scored an outstanding 60 goals for Real Madrid last season, their 2 central strikers, Karim Benzema and Gonzalo Higuain also contributed 32 and 26 goals respectively. The Barcelona team, however is built around Messi, so while he scored a remarkable 73 goals for Barcelona last season, their second highest scorers where Alexis Sanchez and Cesc Fabregas with only 15 goals apiece.   

As the special one said, "One (Messi) plays as a 9 and roams around in those 50 square metres where the distance to goal is smaller and defence less intense. The other (Ronaldo) plays as a winger. How does a winger score as many goals as a number 9?”

...and Ronaldo is no.1

While Real got knocked out at the semi-finals stage of the Champions League, Ronaldo was in superb goal scoring form, netting 3 times in the last 16, twice in the quarter-finals and twice again in the semi-finals. His only blemish was missing his spot-kick in the penalty shoot-out that saw them fall to Bayern Munich.  

And he faced déjà vu in Euro 2012, as his Portugal team fell at the semi-final stage after a penalty shoot-out, this time Ronaldo not even making it to the spot. Although he was largely disappointing in Portugal’s first two matches of that tournament, he produced an outstanding performance in their last crucial group match again Holland, and then scored a fantastic winning goal in the Quarter-final against the Czech Republic. While Portugal threatened Spain for large parts of their semi-final, they were unable to find the killer blow, and Ronaldo missed out on what could have been a career defining moment.

Oh crap I should've taken the first one

Nevertheless, it has been a remarkable year for Ronaldo. For individual brilliance, for contribution to team success, for incredible levels of consistency and for big performances in big matches, he truly deserves his year to be capped off by being acknowledged as the best performer of 2012. 

Unfortunately, because everyone loves Messi, it probably won’t happen. Should a personal affection for someone or a dislike of another influence the result? 

Ronaldo isn’t a dirty footballer. His disciplinary record is exemplary; he works unbelievable hard in training, and gives everything in matches. He shakes hands with his opponents after the game, win or lose, respects his managers, and you rarely see him arguing with a referee even when he’s being kicked from every angle. 

So yes he does pout a lot, use what seems an excessive amount of hair product, and likes to concentrate intensely before he’s taking a free kick. Are these reasons not to vote for someone as a footballer? 

Missile armed and ready to fire sir

If Ronaldo loses we know he’s going to look furious and sulky, we know he wants people to recognise his brilliance, we know he wants to win for the sake of winning, for the sake of ego and so he can shove the Ballon d’Or in Messi’s face (or other bodily part). But really isn’t that what we would all do, isn’t this just normal competitive human behaviour?

If Messi loses we’ll have to deal with magnanimous congratulations, transcendent niceness and child-like angelic congeniality. If he wins he will most likely say it was all because of his team-mates, his coaches, his school teachers, his sponsors, and the doctors who injected him with growth hormones as a kid.

Less hair product = more friends = more votes

In the highly corporatized, politically correct world we live in, Messi is the footballer an elite team of FIFA and Adidas engineers would programme into a system to design their perfect brand-conscious footballer. Equally, Barcelona with their fetish for possession and their good football that keeps telling you that it’s good football, is equally attractive to purist and casual fan alike. 

Barca will likely go down as the best team of this generation, Messi its best player, and in tendem maybe the best ever. Does this mean Messi was the best player of 2012? Not to me. But he wasn’t the best player in 2010 either so don’t be surprised if he wins this one too.