Friday 16 November 2012

Arsene Wenger - Professor or Past it?

It’s the north London derby this weekend and, like last year, this match has the added significance of being potentially critical to the battle for Champions League places. Last year Arsenal’s 5-2 victory at the Emirates gave them significant momentum and there was only a single point between the clubs come May. 

The professor and the pupil

Arsenal have so far had a mixed start to the season but it often seems like the analysis of Arsenal’s situation is typically extreme and often heated. Initially fans and the media were raving about their new found defensive stability, under the tutelage of assistant manager Steve Bould. They were also drooling at the performances of Santi Cazola, and suggesting that Arsenal were a stronger team without Robin van Persie.

There really is a Santi Claus!

But in the last four weeks they have suffered losses to Norwich, Manchester United and Schalke, and then conceded 2 goal advantages to draw against Schalke in their return match and Fulham in the Premier League. The vultures are out again and many have questioned manager Arsene Wenger’s future at the club, just as they did this time last season.
Interspersed among these games was Arsenal’s AGM, where supporters let out their frustrations at not having won a trophy since their FA Cup triumph in 2005. For a big club like Arsenal this is obviously perceived as a failure, and subsequently a failure by Wenger. The question is, has Wenger actually failed?

To answer that question we need to understand how to judge a manager. The highly regarded sports economics professor Stefan Szymanski has done detailed studies on the impact of players and managers in football. In the book Soccernomics he showed that, because they do their job in public, the market in footballers in extremely efficient, and players largely earn what they’re worth. 
Professor Dalglish thought Andy Carroll was worth £35m... hmm

Furthermore in a study of English football managers, he found that league position was largely explained by a club’s wage bill - the correlation between player’s wages and league position is around 90%. It follows therefore that most other things, including the manager, are relatively unimportant.
Of course this doesn’t mean that the physio or the club mascot could do a manager’s job, just that their impact on overall league position is small relative to the impact of the resources at their disposal.  
Even Gunnersaurus has won a trophy!

This makes intuitive sense – put Jose Mourinho in charge of Accrington Stanley and they will improve, but they wouldn’t win the Champions League in 5 years.  
Accrington Stanley, who are they? Exactly

Of course player’s wages don’t explain everything; there is still room for a good manager to make a difference. Szymanski analysed English clubs from 1973 to 2010 and compared league performance against expectations based on their wage bill. The top 5 performers he identified were Bob Paisley, Bobby Robson, Alex Ferguson, Arsene Wenger and David Moyes.
Paisley, a giant of the game (or are those just miniature trophies?)

Paisley and Ferguson are all-time legends, having won 18 league titles and 5 European Cups between them. But while at ‘big’ clubs, they achieved their success without significantly outspending their rivals. Bobby Robson and David Moyes are more interesting cases since, in terms of silverware, they only have one FA Cup success between them - Robson’s 1978 success with Ipswich. But both managers are given huge credit for producing consistently excellent results with very limited budgets.

During his 13 years at Ipswich, Robson nearly always finished in the top 6, and was twice runners-up, despite only buying 14 players during that time, relying instead on players developed through the youth academy. Moyes similarly has only once finished in the top 4, but Everton have consistently outperformed more affluent rivals during his tenure.
Arise Sir Bobby

The problem for Wenger is expectations for success at Arsenal are far higher than at Everton now, or Ipswich in the 70s. The irony is this expectation is probably brought about from the success Wenger himself achieved in the early part of his Arsenal reign. Before their recent trophy drought Arsenal won 3 Premier League titles and 4 FA Cups, and did this with a modestly high budget and always in competition with a great overachieving manager, Alex Ferguson.
Ah the good old days

Many commentators have suggested a decline in Wenger’s powers over the years, suggesting that other teams have caught up with his once revolutionary ideas in training, diet and scouting. While this may be true, this isn’t the critical factor; the bigger reason is that the resources of the competition have increased significantly in recent years.  
In his first seven seasons Arsenal had the highest wage bill in the Premier League, averaging 7.5% of the total league spend, a slightly bigger amount than even Ferguson had over the same period.  However, in 2011 Arsenal were only the 5th biggest spenders in the Premier League, with a total wage bill of £124m. This placed them significantly behind big spending Manchester City (£174m) and Chelsea (£168m), but also Manchester United (£153m) and Liverpool (£129m). City are relative newcomers to the party, having increased their wage bill from £36m to £174m in just four years, but Chelsea, United and Liverpool have consistently been big spenders over the last 5 years.

Splashing the cash
On this basis it could be argued Wenger has actually overachieved, especially when considering the consistency of his performance - Arsenal have qualified for the Champions League in each of the last 15 seasons, a feat only matched by Manchester United and Real Madrid.
Of course supporters want trophies, and Arsenal haven’t won anything since their FA cup triumph in 2005. However, there are only 4 trophies available each season, and as per expectation, the majority have been won by teams with bigger spending power.
The 7 Premier League titles have been won by United (4), Chelsea (2) and Man City (1); the FA Cups by Chelsea (4), Man City (1), Liverpool (1) and Portsmouth (1). Yes Portsmouth are an exception here to the ‘big club’ status, but would Arsenal supporters rather have their club overspend and destroy their long term future like Portsmouth did?

Twiffic achievement, but was it worth destroying the club for?
The League Cup has been won by United (3), Chelsea (1), Liverpool (1), Spurs (1) and Birmingham (1) – so bigger clubs even have a hold in a competition they pay less attention to. The Champions League in this period has been won by Barcelona (3), United (1), Chelsea (1), AC Milan (1) and Inter (1). Milan and Inter are again examples of clubs that spent big money to gain success, but are now undergoing huge financial difficulties and restructuring as economic conditions have changed.

Berlusconi is told Zlatan has to be sold to PSG
While there have been plenty of jokes going around in recent years about the dustiness of Arsenal’s trophy cabinet, the same could be said of most clubs. And clubs who temporarily spent big to achieve success, such as Portsmouth, Inter, AC Milan and Liverpool, are currently struggling, as they face up to the costs of chasing that success.
Oh yeah, you know the joke

Interestingly Szymanski’s analysis of managers did not take any account of a manager’s transfer spending. What makes Wenger’s relative performance even more remarkable is that, since their move to the Emirates in 2006, Arsenal have had net transfer INFLOWS of £49m. In the same period Manchester City and Chelsea have been the biggest spenders, splashing out £444m and £235m respectively. But even Liverpool (£105m), Manchester United (£93m), Tottenham (£61m) and Aston Villa (90mm) have spent significant positive amounts over this period. And even relatively frugal clubs, such as Newcastle (-£28m) and Everton (0) haven’t been as restricted in their transfer dealings as Arsenal have.
Hmm should I buy another ship or Torres for £50m? Ah I'll have both

Many of the transfers involved were simply due to the club receiving offers that were too good to refuse, from clubs with larger financial power. For example, Alex Hleb (11.8mm) and Thierry Henry (16.1mm) moved to Barcelona, and Emmanuelle Adebayor (25mm) and Kolo Toure (16mm) to Manchester City. This summer’s sale of Alex Song could be considered in this bracket – £15mm is a considerable sum for a player with undoubted talent but questionable tactical discipline.
Gone for a song?

Robin van Persie (22m) and Samir Nasri (22m) had reached the final year of their deals, so Wenger’s hands were tied in these cases, and once again they moved to teams with greater spending power. Cesc Fabregas (35m) was so desperate to rejoin his boyhood Barcelona that it wasn’t in Arsenal’s interests keeping an unhappy player. In all cases Wenger made significant profits on these players, so credit must go to him for developing their talents to the point where clubs with greater financial clout would be willing to pay significant sums for their transfer.
I love Arsenal, no really I do... just not as much as Barca

While these transfers make sense individually, collectively it appears that Arsenal are a selling club, and focused on generating profits. In reality, the club hasn’t paid out any dividends to the shareholders, and all the profits that have made on player sales have been retained within the club.
Ignoring player sales, Arsenal are actually running a fairly balanced budget. In their 2012 accounts, for example, the club reported a turnover of £235m, with £200m of expenses (£143.5m in player wages). They also have £14m interest charges to service each year for their mortgage on the Emirates stadium. After infrastructure projects, such as enhancements to corporate hospitality, a new medical centre, and planned improvements to the youth academy, there is little left for spending in the transfer market.
I have this much to spend each year, what do you expect?
Of course a big gripe with supporters is that they pay some of the highest ticket prices in Europe, and indeed their matchday revenues are significant. In 2011 they generated £93m from matchdays which is only behind, Real Madrid (£111m), Manchester United (108m) and Barcelona (£100m). It is also a long way clear of rivals Chelsea (£67.5m), Liverpool (£41m) and Manchester City (£26.5m).
Unfortunately, these numbers are nothing in comparison to the external money put into Manchester City and Chelsea by their owners. It is estimated that Roman Abramovich has ‘invested’ over £1bn in Chelsea since 2003, while Sheikh Mansour has made similarly large contributions to Manchester City’s balance sheet. In the 2010-11 season Chelsea reported losses of £68m, while City’s loss of £197m was the greatest annual loss in football history. Unfortunately for Wenger these clubs have changed the playing field, driving wages up and making it difficult for a club running a balanced budget to retain it’s best talent.
£197m loss? Pah, plenty more where that came from

So, given their constraints, Arsenal are performing at, or above, expectations, and their cash position is strong due to a positive flows in the transfer market. Is there anywhere the club can improve?
The first area is the club’s wage structure. While Arsenal’s overall wage bill is large enough to attract good players, they have a flatter wage structure than most, meaning that fringe players like Squillaci and Chamakh are well rewarded. A prime example of this was Johan Djourou’s new £50k/week contract signed in February, a player who is yet to make an appearance so far this season. This policy has resulted in a difficulty in offloading unwanted players, hence why Bendtner, Denilson and Park had to be loaned out rather than sold.

Woo guys, we're all on 50k a week!!
The board has also not done a good enough job with contract renewals. Wenger’s hands were tied over the sales of Nasri and Van Persie due to their contracts being run down, and the same situation is currently occurring with Theo Walcott. Rather than renewing deals with fringe players on good terms, the moneymen should have focused on rewarding their star names with more lucrative long-term contracts. Any club needs to focus on retaining their best talent wherever possible, to help the manager build a consistent playing squad.

Potentially flying the nest
The other area the board need to work harder on is growing their commercial revenues. In 2011/12 the club only generated £53m in commercial income, which pales into insignificance compared to the big 3 in this area of Bayern Munich (£161m), Real Madrid (£156m) and Barcelona (£141m). It is also less than half the £118m generated by Manchester United and less than Liverpool (£77m), Manchester City (£65m) and Chelsea (£57m).
This weakness is primarily due to the fact they tied themselves into long-term deals to finance the Emirates stadium project. The 8-year shirt sponsorship deal they signed with Emirates only pays £5.5m/year, while Liverpool, United and City reportedly earn £20m from Standard Chartered, Aon and Etihad respectively. Their deal with kit supplier Nike only earns them £8m/year, while Liverpool and Manchester United receive around £25m/year from their deals with Warrior and Nike respectively. These deals are however due to expire at the end of next season so if renewed at market rates Arsenal can expect an upturn of around £30m/year in commercial revenues.
I give you this plastic plane, you give me cheap 8-year sponsorship

Alongside this, the club undertook its first pre-season tour to Asia this year. A primary reason their rivals have been so much stronger in commercial tie-ups is the use of pre-season tours to grow their global brand. While Wenger has resisted this previously, given it isn’t ideal preparation, the reality is this is going to become a necessity if the club wants to compete financially going forward.

Clowning around in Asia helps pay the bills
The simple fact of the matter is what while Arsenal fans have been frustrated in recent years from a lack of silverware, the club has simply been a victim of changes to the financial landscape of English football. Put simply, Arsenal have not won a trophy since billionaires entered the Premier League, while also being victim to the investment and financial planning required to build the Emirates stadium.  
The club might have the highest ticket prices in Europe, but they also have a beautiful new ground in one of the wealthiest cities in the world, a ground they should be proud of and one that puts them in a strong financial footing for years to come. They also have a manager who demands an attractive style of football, who consistently develops players that the biggest clubs in the world are willing to pay huge fees for.
High prices but they keep on coming...
At a time when not just football clubs but national economies are facing future austerity due to a lack of smart financial planning, it is surely unfair to criticise Arsenal for being conservative in their spending. There is no doubt the purse strings could be loosened slightly, but they would still have struggled to cope with the financially doped Chelsea and City.

 Even still, with all this against him, with some better luck with injuries, Arsenal would likely have won some trophies in recent years and therefore had a better chance of retaining some of their star players. Think how Alex Ferguson struggled without Cantona in 95, Keane in 98, Ferdinand in 04 and Vidic in 2012.

While Arsene Wenger is no Alex Ferguson in terms of achievement, his performance considering the resources available to him have been consistently excellent, and should be acknowledged as such. He has consistently delivered attractive, attacking football that has been good enough to qualify them for the Champions League year in, year out. Possibly magnifique, but certainly trés trés bon. 

Wednesday 24 October 2012

The FIFA Rankings: Good, Bad or Ugly?

"Somebody must have gone down the pub at lunchtime and scribbled the rankings on the back of a beer mat because they are ridiculous," wrote Robbie Savage in his Daily Mirror column last month. While Savage isn't known to hold back, this pretty much sums up the view of most British journalists on the FIFA rankings for international teams.

Savage gives FIFA rankings the hairdryer treatment 

We've seen recent headlines on the subject such as, "Rank Failure" (The Sun), "You're having a laugh" (Daily Mirror) and "This is getting silly now" (Daily Mail).

This view is primarily based on England being in a lofty 5th position (and as high as 3rd in August). Matthew Norman wrote an article in the Telegraph suggesting that the ranking was "Fifa's cunning plan to blind us to our inadequacy."  

Hmm what a brilliant idea

So is there something fundamentally flawed with the ranking calculations or is this just another case of over zealous journalism? 

In the previously mentioned Telegraph article, Norman goes on to state that the calculation, "appears to be a mathematical formula melding the more opaque calculations of the Duckworth-Lewis method with the most abstruse aspects of quantum gravity theory."


Something like this maybe?


Having decided to take the plunge and have a closer look at the calculations, it was surprising to find that they are actually very simple and easy to follow. Points are awarded to teams for each match played based on only 3 factors:

1) The result
2) The competition it was played in
3) How strong the opposition was

Pay attention! Here comes the science bit...

The formula is simply:

Points Scored = M x I x T x C

M is the match result. 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss. If a match is won on penalties then the winning team gets 2 and the losing team 1.

I is the match importance. This can only have one of 4 values - 1 for a friendly; 2.5 for a World Cup or confederation tournament (e.g. Euros, Copa America, African Nations etc.) qualifier; 3 for a confederation tournament match or 4 for a World Cup tournament match.

T accounts for the strength of the opposition based on their prevailing ranking. The top ranked team (currently Spain) are given a value of 200, the second 199 and so on; while teams ranked 150 and below are assigned a minimum value of 50.

C is minor adjustment for the strength of the opposition's confederation. The values are based on performances in the last 3 World Cups, and currently European and South American teams are given a value of 1, the Central and North Americans 0.88, Asian and African teams 0.86 and Oceanic teams 0.85.

So simply put there are only 3 factors that influence the rankings points earned - the result, the importance of the match, and the strength of the opposition.

Woo hoo Wazza... even we can understand that!

The only slight complicating factor is that while matches are over a full World Cup cycle are taken into account (i.e. the last 4 years results), more recent results are given greater importance. So matches in the last 12 months are given 100% value, the next 12 months 50%, the 12 months after that 30% and the remaining results only 20% of their original value. Once a match is over 4 years old it drops off and no longer factors in the ranking calculation.

Ok so the calculations are fairly straight forward and logical in principle, and could be done by anyone with a GCSE in Maths. So why the disconnect between England's lofty position, and many journalist's opinion of where they should be?

You want me to explain our ranking? Hmm...

The probable answer to that question is that the rankings are representative of performance over a sustained period in all matches and not designed to be a replication of tournament success. Tournament games rightly carry a heavier weighting in the calculations, hence Spain's position as clear no.1 is no surprise. But friendlies and qualification matches also play their part. Given the huge emphasis the press and public put on tournament progression, this is probably where the disconnect lies.

Is it possible to discuss England without mentioning you know what? 
Don't be silly...

To evaluate the claim that the rankings are a poor representation of reality, it is worth looking at the performances of the teams around England, which many journalists clearly believe to be far superior outfits. 

3rd placed Portugal performed averagely in the last two tournaments, reaching the Last 16 in 2010 and the Semis at Euro 2012. They also only scrapped through qualifying for both tournaments, coming 2nd in their group to Denmark both times, and only reaching the tournaments via the playoffs.

Please not Spain again...

4th placed Argentina struggled to qualify for WC2010, coming 4th placed in South America behind Chile and Paraguay, having won only 8 of their 18 qualification matches. They also were knocked out at the last 8 stage of the Copa America last year (a tournament with only 12 teams), having only won 1 of their 4 matches, and that against a weak Costa Rica side.

An amazing forward line... but Messi results

6th placed Netherlands have been generally superb in the last 4 years but they crashed out of Euro2012 after 3 straight defeats in the group stages. As much as England's performance in the tournament disappointed their supporters, imagine how the Dutch felt.

Oh dear...

7th place Uruguay had a fantastic 2010 World Cup and won the 2011 Copa America, but their 2012 results (which carry the highest weighting) have been poor. In their 9 games this year they have only managed a single win against Peru, with 5 draws and 3 losses in the remaining 8 matches.

8th placed Italy have certainly seen an upturn in results since the arrival of Cesare Prandelli culminating in reaching the final of Euro 2012. But only 2 years ago in South Africa they came bottom of a group containing Paraguay, Slovakia and New Zealand, failing to win a single match. 

Rolled over by the minnows

In places 9-12 are Colombia, Greece, Croatia and Russia. Teams who haven't exactly had much notable success, and who surely no one would think should be above England on current form.

13th and 14th are the more interesting cases of France and Brazil. France have performed poorly in the last 2 tournaments with 1 draw and 2 losses at WC 2010 and 1 win, 1 draw, 2 losses at Euro 2012. Brazil only reached the World Cup quarter finals and only won one match at the 2011 Copa America. Being hosts for 2014 they are also suffering from a lack of qualifying  matches, which is naturally hurting their ranking.  

The only way is up

Beyond that, Switzerland, Ivory Coast, Chile, Denmark, Mexico and Ecuador complete the top 20. Again, can it be genuinely said that any of these teams have performed more strongly than England in the last 4 years?

There is no doubt England are in a transitional phase with a new manager and the long running John Terry saga causing unwanted distractions. While there has been justified criticism of England's recent performances, they are nevertheless unbeaten in the 11 games Roy Hodgson has been in charge. In fact since getting knocked out of the 2010 World Cup to Germany England have only lost 2 games, and both were friendlies, against France and Holland. 

How are we still unbeaten? No idea...

Once again it needs to be made clear that the purpose of the rankings is to be a representation of success over a sustained period in all matches and not just to replicate tournament performances. The frustration for England fans is that, after recent disappointments, they don't feel they are the realistic contenders to win a tournament that a no.5 ranking would suggest. 

Unfortunately for the England situations have conspired against them in the last 2 tournaments. In 2010 they lost captain Rio Ferdinand to injury in the build-up, while star player Wayne Rooney was suffering from an ankle injury, and was a long way short of his best form. 

Only 15 mins played? I'm knackered!

Their Euro 2012 preparation was disrupted by the John Terry saga and Fabio Capello's subsequent resignation. Roy Hodgson barely had time to prepare for the tournament and subsequently was hit by injuries to Frank Lampard, Gareth Barry, Chris Smalling, Kyle Walker and Gary Cahill. With Tom Cleverly also unavailable and no SOS being put out to Michael Carrick or Paul Scholes, Hodgson was left having to use Jordon Henderson as back-up for Parker and Gerrard in central midfield. 

Oh dear, we both know it's game over now...

Tournaments also offer a very specific set of circumstances that England seem incapable of dealing with. They always come at the end of the season, when Premiership players are often tired, given the pace, competitiveness and - given the lack of a winter break - relentlessness of the competition. They also seem to suffer from the media scrutiny and weight of expectation from supporters. Lastly, tournaments, unlike qualification matches, are mostly played in hotter summer conditions, where more calculated possession based football is likely to generate greater success than the higher tempo game seen in the Premier League. 

Yes the calculations could be tweaked to give more weighting to tournament matches, and give bonuses for progressing further. But that would further complicate them and only further dilute the value of friendlies and qualifying games. 

The problem is not really with the rankings, or their complexity, but more the disconnect between their actual purpose and what the media and supporters think they should represent. 

Saturday 18 August 2012

10 things we learned from Euro 2012


1. Spain WERE boring… until the final

There was much debate in the build-up to the final about whether Spain were boring. On one side were those who argued that playing without a striker meant they lacked penetration. That they were control freaks who were keeping the ball away from the opposition, without actually trying to score. On the other were those who were hypnotised by their endless passing triangles and technical quality. Was their football exciting to real supporters or just to the International Council of Pass Statisticians?


You are feeling sleepy... veeeeery very sleepy

After the final those admirers of Spain’s play felt vindicated and pointed to their demolition of Italy as evidence for the fact they were an adventurous and exciting team. In fact, the opposite is true. The final did indeed show us what this Spanish team were capable of... this wasn’t the Spain the people said were boring.

Yes they started the final without a recognized striker, but this was not the real issue, the use of a 'false 9' has proved successful for other teams. The issue was that they did not show enough attacking intent, preferring to hold possession, rather than pushing players into goal scoring positions and attempting the tricky final pass.


Ok guys, let's keep the ball in here for 90mins

A lot of criticism of Spain because given the wealth of playing resources at their disposal they were surely capable of more. With players like Xavi, Iniesta, Fabregas, Torres, Silva, Pedro, Navas, Llorente and Mata in their squad surely they would produce entertaining attacking football. In fact this 'golden generation' had only scored 10 goals in the 9 knock out games the played during their tournament wins before Sunday’s final. Their conservative team selection and playing style has meant this is a team that was admired by all for their ruthless efficiency, but not universally loved.

It is hard to criticize Del Bosque given winning is the main concern of most supporters. Nevertheless, some more clinical finishing from Croatia and Portugal would have eliminated them from the tournament, after unimpressive performances where their ambition to win was questionable. 

I'm not crying... I just have some hair gel in my eyes

In the final the team sheet was the same but the philosophy was totally different. Maybe the team had listened to the criticism and decided that it was time to show the world what they could do?

Xavi was freed to move higher up the pitch, and the tempo of the passing in midfield was far quicker. Fabregas was making the runs of a striker in behind the Italian defense. Their second goal came from a blistering penetrating run from their left back Jordi Alba. Suddenly instead of being 30 yards from goal and only have having backwards or sideway options, the Spanish players had forward passes available to them. 

This was even more evident with the introduction of Torres and Pedro but it showed that it’s not a formation (in this case 4-6-0) that’s defensive, but the style of play, the attitude and the movement of the players within that system. At half-time in the final Italy had actually enjoyed the majority of the possession, but Spain had two goals. Finally they had found the right balance between possession and penetration.

What's going on, they're actually trying to score?!

Having won the final and won their 3rd successive tournament the debate has started as to whether this Spain team is the greatest international side ever. While I believe it’s almost impossible to make this cross-era ‘greatest’ deduction in any sport, we can certainly say that winning 3 major tournaments in a row makes Spain worthy of being part of the discussion.

Their most obvious challenger to the title of greatest ever has to be the Brazil teams of 1958-70, which won 3 world cups in 12 years, with extraordinary style and panache. They also and legendary playing squad that included two of the greatest players in the history of the game, Garrincha, considered the best dribbler in history, and Pele, generally considered one of the games best ever players.

I can't believe it, they all think Spain are better than us!

Comparing between eras is almost impossible for many reasons, because of the changes that have occurred in the game. For example, Spain are helped by changes in the laws such as the liberalization of the offside rule and much stronger protection from referees. While Pele was kicked out of the 62 and 66 world cups, Spanish players are very quick to show when they have been fouled, and referees very quick to discipline opposing players.


Don't worry lads, we might be small be we are mighty

We can of course focus on pure achievements and the '58 Brazil team achieved the unique feat of being the only South American team to win a World Cup on European soil. Becoming the first European team to win a World Cup on South American soil in 2014 would go a long way towards achieving parity with that legendary side. If they do it, let’s hope they do it in style.



2. Germany should stick to Blitzkrieg

Despite all the promise and all signs pointing to this being their year, once again Germany came up short. Having won all 10 games in qualifying, all 3 games in the 'group of death' and dominated Greece in the Quarter finals, the signs were good for a first tournament win since Euro ‘96.

Remember the German Kuntz?

Unfortunately for them, when it really mattered, instead of playing to their strengths against Italy in the semis, the Germans adapted their game plan to deal with the opposition threat. To be fair, Joachim Low is very tactically astute manager, and having seen Pirlo dominate against England, it was understandable that he put an extra body in midfield to deal with Italy’s diamond.


Stay close guys, we need to keep it tight

However, by bringing in Tony Kroos for Thomas Muller, and shifting Mesut Ozil to an inside right position, Germany lost their width. And against a diamond midfield, exploiting the spaces available in wide areas is usually key to attacking penetration. 

While Kroos was at least able to maintain position goalside of Pirlo (unlike Rooney in the England-Italy QF), he didn’t get close enough to him. And with Ozil having almost zero defensive mentality Germany’s right flack was open for Chiellini to exploit, which led to Italy’s first goal.

Me defend? Come on seriously?

Germany looked far more fluent, energetic and dynamic in their quarter final against Greece with a front 3 of Reus, Klose and Schurrle. Switching them with Kroos, Gomez and Podolski didn’t really cause Italy any problems. 

After getting dumped out of Euro 2004 without winning a single match, Klinsman and Lowe transformed the German team by introducing their current dynamic attacking style. Klinsman based this tactic shift on the basis that German culture involved being confident, attacking at pace, and looking to overwhelm the opposition with the power and speed of their attacks. 

Sharp dress sense for an attractive playing style

If Lowe had stuck to this approach, things might not have been different for Germany, but at least they would have asked more questions of Italy. A coach can only do so much however, and Lowe could not legislate for Mats Hummel’s only bad 45 mins of the tournament, and Balotelli’s best 45mins of his career.


Seriously, whoever stole my shirt is dead

3. If you're good enough, you're young enough

Theodoros Zagorakis in 2004, Zinedine Zidane in 2006, Diego Forlan in 2010. In Euro 2012 the class act was another golden oldie, Andrea Pirlo.

In a world where managers typically favour powerful destructive players deep in their midfield, Pirlo offered command of the midfield zone through intelligence and technique. The two best passing teams in this tournament made the final, and while Alonso, Busquets, Xavi, Marchisio and De Rossi all played well at various points in the tournament, it was Pirlo who was the most consistently brilliant. He was at the heart of everything good Italy did, orchestrating the play like a classical conductor.

Nice try... see you later lads

There are two ways of minimising the impact of a deep-lying playmaker like Pirlo. Either you ask someone to stay tight to him, like Germany did, or you drop your defense so deep that there is little space for him to play his long passes into, like England did. In the end Germany failed to keep him quiet and England ended up so deep they were rarely able to threaten the Italian goal.

Although imperious in technique Pirlo’s game is naturally distrupted when a high energy player is put in his zone. A perfect example would be Sir Alex Ferguson’s use of Ji-Sung Park again him in Manchester United’s 4-0 victory against Milan in the Champion’s league. Park was always close to Pirlo when Milan were on the ball, but also was able to use his energy to drive past him when United were on the attack, thus exposing Pirlo’s lack of mobility.  

Now this is tight marking

Judging by the first 15 minutes of the England-Italy Quarter Final it seemed Roy Hodgson had tasked this role to Wayne Rooney, with assistance from strike partner Danny Welbeck. It was surprising to see such a lack of defensive discipline from Rooney, given that his willingness to make sacrifices for the team were what made him such a great player, and made the 2006-08 Manchester United team so successful. 


I wish I was on a nice beach somewhere

To a certain extent Rooney was clearly lacking fitness after a grueling pre-tournament holiday to Las Vegas. But also since the departure of Ronaldo to Real Madrid, Rooney has become the ‘main man’ at United. He has shouldered a greater goal scoring burden, but potentially to the detriment of his all round tactical contribution. Is it poor lifestyle choices, is it the lack of Sir Alex’s hairdrier or maybe after a long hard season is it tired legs? Whatever it is, Rooney still hasn’t made his mark on a tournament since Euro 2004, despite England managers regularly building their teams around him.
  


4. Team cohesiveness is as important as individual quality

Both the Italians and the Germans have managed to shed their image of being negative and lacking flair, while still maintaining their organization, efficiency and ruthlessness. The Spanish also showed how important club connections could be in driving a successful international team, in a style familiar to viewers of Spanish football. 

Were the Dutch very Dutch? If you associate Dutch football with the ‘Total Football’ of the 70s, then certainly not. If however you associate them with over inflated egos and a lack team unity then this was certainly typical Holland.

Talk to the hand Bert, this is more like Total Crap

There was much criticism of the Dutch playing style during World Cup 2010, especially after the final, where their primary tactic was to physically unsettle the Spanish. Unless you’re Johan Cruyff, it was difficult to criticize a team that reached the World Cup final. But even in the World Cup they failed to find any true attacking fluidity given the wonderful array of attacking talent at their disposal.

The system their manager Bert van Marwijk preferred was a ‘pure’ 4-2-3-1 rather than the evolved 4-4-1-1 which becomes a 4-2-3-1 as the wingers push on. The idea behind playing 2 very defensively minded central midfielders (Marc van Bommel and Nigel De Jong), is that it allows more attacking freedom to the front four, and strong protection for what is individually a weak defense.

Defensive midfield play the Dutch way

The problem however is that it plays into the mentality of players such as Arjen Robben, who often show little desire to track their opposing full back into the final third. Secondly a purely destructive and cynical central midfield meant their team lacked any cohesiveness, it was almost a back 6 and a front 4. While individual brilliance can sometimes compensate, it often isn’t enough.

As Arrigo Sacchi said, "Today's football is about managing the characteristics of individuals, and that's why you see the proliferation of specialists. The individual has trumped the collective. But it's a sign of weakness. It's reactive, not pro-active."


Yes I'm talking to you Robben, Van der Vaart and Sneijder

Of course Sacchi is a devotee of universality and an heir to the Total Football philosophy believing that if player can operate in multiple positions this increases the effectiveness of the team. 'Attack as a team and defend as a team' is the mantra that, through the influence of Dutch masters at Barcelona, we see in Spain’s play. 

While it is often difficult to convince to today’s star players to sublimate themselves to a team philosophy, van Marwijik clearly decided this would be impossible with characters such as Robben, van der Vaart and Sneijder. Van der Vaart, as in the 2010 World Cup, mostly featured from the bench, and when finally given a start in the final group game against Portugal showed why he couldn’t be trusted positionally in a deep midfield role, leaving Holland lacking defensive shape without the ball. 

A potential solution to the midfield conundrum could have been Kevin Strootman, who is the type of box-to-box player who offers a balance between defense and attack. Unfortunately while Robben kept doing his same trick of running into a crowd and not passing to anyone, and Afellay did… well  nothing, Strootman didn’t get a single minute in the tournament. 

Once again a Dutch team fell short because it wasn’t able to find the cohesiveness to bring out the best from their individual attacking talents… not very Total Football, but still typical Holland.



5. England can be disciplined

Although many lamented England’s inability to maintain possession of the football, and were totally outclassed by Italy in the quarter finals, they at least found some discipline in their game. 

A pleasant surprise was the intelligent and mature performances of Steven Gerrard, who we are more used to tearing around the pitch looking to produce a Roy of the Rovers style moment. Maybe is was the captain’s armband or maybe it was the realisation that 2014 might be his last chance to prove he can play with Frank Lampard.

Finally I get to be captain!

The problem for England was that they were so disciplined that they ended up lacking fluidity in attack. 

There was a lot of criticism directed at Roy Hodgson’s tactics, especially the formation but in reality there was little variety in tactical shape across the tournament. Apart from Italy’s opening game against Spain we didn’t see any 3 man defenses, and Italy provided the only use of a diamond midfield. Otherwise we saw variations on the same theme, i.e. 4-4-2, 4-4-1-1, 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. 

While England were strongly critised for playing a 4-4-2, theirs wasn’t a whole world away from the 4-2-3-1 that seems the current fashion in European football. The problem was England rarely played high enough up the pitch, and their transition from defense to attack broke down too early for the wingers to move into advanced positions, or their 2nd striker to link with the midfield and influence the game.

Many in the press lamented England’s inability to produce a player with Pirlo’s qualities and England’s general lack of ability to retain possession. It should be noted however that in Paul Scholes England did have a player of Pirlo’s class but he was never given a prominent position in the England team and retried after Euro 2004. 

Enough said...

Though not in the same class as Pirlo, Michael Carrick is another player who possess a superb range of passing and a very sharp footballing brain. While he doesn’t have the ability to dictate a game’s tempo - in the mould of Pirlo, Scholes or Xavi - international tournaments are typically always played at the moderate tempo that suits Carrick’s passing game. His exclusion was a huge loss for England, especially when Parker and Gerrard clearly struggled to last 90 or 120 mins.

If England are going to do a better job of controlling games and bringing more out of their powerful attacking playings then utilizing players like Carrick and Jack Wilshire will be crucial.



6. A great individual needs a great team

Arguably the strongest player going into this tournament was Cristiano Ronaldo but once again it proved beyond him to lift Portugal to victory. The Portugese defense was excellent through the tournament, their midfield was reliable and focused, especially the highly effective Joao Moutinho. But this wasn’t the Madrid team with whom Ronaldo plundered 60 goals from 55 games, and it showed how important team mates are in making individuals shine.

While Nani was bright on the right wing, Portugal lacked a playmaker in the mould of Mesut Ozil, or a striker of the class or Karim Benzema or Gonzalo Higuain. Even so, while Ronaldo was quiet against Germany and poor very Denmark, he produced a masterful performance against Holland and a wonderful headed goal against the Czechs.

In the same way Messi has as thus far failed to bring his Barcelona form to Argentina, Ronaldo gets a lot of criticism for his international performances. In both cases the criticism is slightly unfair since in both cases the players around them are weaker and their international teams are less cohesive due to lack of time playing together. However, despite falling short of many people’s expectations his majestic performances this year make Ronaldo a deserving candidate for the Ballon D’Or this year.

Oh please not Messi again!


7. BBC’s coverage needs a revamp

This was the first tournament in living memory the BBC’s coverage was probably worse that ITV’s

The thought of having to listen to Hansen go through his usual repetoir of “world class”, “mental strength”, “pass and move”, “into feet” and “mugnificent” during the Premier League season is already filling me with dread.

Shearer was “magnuficent” in his role as the boring man in the pub who generally states the obvious in a very mundane dreary way, and “at the end of day” uses far too many clichés. Dixon is clearly a smart chap but his style means he’s better suited to helping people with insomnia. Martin Keown managed to pull off the impossible by being less insightful than Mark Bright, but they both came a long way short of winning the title for the worst punditry in tournament history. That title has to go to the one and only Mark Lawrenson.

Please someone save me from these morons

‘Lawro’ has clearly lost any passion he ever had for football, or just life in general. He seemed utterly disinterested for most of the tournament, like this was a schoolboy tournament, like he was the greatest footballer of all time and commentating on the Euros was beneath him.

To distract him from his boredom of having to watch and analyse the football he attempted to break the record for the number of sarcastic comments made in a 90-minute period. Maybe I’m being harsh and actually someone has threatened the life of Lawro’s kids if he makes a single positive comment on TV, and if this is the case I’m confident they would have been freed after the tournament.

I could do better than this lot...

While Adrian Chiles seems to be equally disinterested in the actual football, at least he seemed to be genuinely excited at the chance to stoke up a fight between Roy Keane and Patrick Viera. Comments such as "your feelings for Ronaldo are as close as you would ever get to man love, aren’t they Roy?" provided mild amusement, and many of his jokes were so bad that they were actually bizarrely entertaining. Watching Keane try and control himself from laying into Chiles was amusing in itself. 


Seriously Chiles, how did you get this job?

The other ITV pundits were equally refreshing. Carragher was outspoken, although barely comprehendible at times. His regular use of the word ‘caretaker’ in discussing the England captaincy was a highlight of the tournament. Martinez, Viera and Southgate offered insightful views from those at the top end of the game. Of course we still had to put of up Andy Townsend, who insisted on referring to England as “we”… you played 70 times for Ireland Townsend, you are not one of us and never will be.

Unfortunately for ITV viewers generally feel more comfortable in the hands of the public service broadcaster and of course don’t like adverts. For this reason the BBC’s coverage of the final managed to attract 6 times more viewers than ITV.



8. International football still has an important place

While club football clearly dominates and standard between club teams and international teams is growing, an international tournament generates interest like no club competition can. England’s penalty shoot-out against Italy was watched by 23.2 million viewers in England, almost half it’s entire population. No club game can come close to matching that, nor match the solidarity felt within a country in support of their national team.

While clubs and their profiteering owners are happy to undermine international football, it still clearly holds importance with players and supporters alike. Unfortunately for English fans there is no sign of the Premier League making the changes required to help the national team perform, such as reducing the number of teams to 18 or introducing a mid-season break.



9. 16 teams makes for a great tournament

Euro 2016 will be the first tournament to feature 24 teams, so this might be the last great Euros from first game to last. 

Increasing the number of teams makes sense for UEFA’s pockets, since it will mean 20 extra matches at the finals, and a certainty of qualification for the big nations, with their large TV audiences. But quantity in this case certain won’t help with quality. 

I'm not listening to you, I want more games and that's that

The Euros arguably produce a better quality tournament than the World Cup, and one of the key reasons for this is that matches are highly competitive from day one. In this tournament the last day of the group stages was a fascinating battle, often with all four teams in with a chance of qualification. 

If the 2016 format is the same as the 1986-94 World Cups where 16 of the 24 teams qualified for the knockout stages, then with the inclusion of 8 weaker teams, the group stages could simply become a long series of warm-up matches. 

This could also impact the later stages as teams often perform better when challenged early to produce heavyweight performances. Hopefully UEFA can find a solution or Euro 2012 could be the last great tournament.



10. And finally… can we please have some technology!

While it is fair to say the extra officials can only help in the decision making process there were still too many crucial mistakes made in this tournament. 

In a sport where such fine margins decide matches it is frustrating when the officials make mistakes and affect the outcome of matches. It is a positive step that, against Platini’s wishes, FIFA have finally approved goal-line technology for use in top-level matches. 

Hmm let me have another look at that

But goal-line decisions are very rare. We had one big goal-line controversy in this tournament when John Terry cleared Marko Devic’s shot off the line, but it turned out that justice was actually once, since Devic was offside in the build-up. 

The true solution to the problem isn’t the use of complicated hawk-eye systems or magnets in the ball but simply using the existing technology and let the officials have access to the video evidence. While many worry this would break up the flow of the game but football isn’t a non-stop game and the ball is typically only in play for around 60 of the 90 minutes during a match. 

In critical incidents like penalties, red-cards and goal-line decisions, in the time the players are arguing with the referee the viewers at home (and potentially an extra official) often already know what the correct decision should be. 

Video tech has certainly helped the integrity of the result in many other sports and it’s time football followed suit.