We enjoyed the Champions League quarter-finals last week and for the first time since 1996 there was not a single team from England remaining at this stage of the competition – and that was the year Blackburn Rovers were our sole representative. Since then English clubs have taken up more quarter-final places (33) than any other country.
Recent form has been exceptionally strong. In the 8 finals between 2005 and 2012 there was English representation in 7 of them (with 3 winners), and for 3 seasons between 2007 and 2009 3 of the 4 semi-finalists were from England.
This year’s poor performance has occurred on the back of a disappointing tournament last season, where both Manchester clubs failed to progress from the group stages, and only Chelsea progressed to the quarter finals after a heroic comeback against Napoli in the last-16 before going on to an unlikely victory.
Last year’s poor performance could have been seen a blip but two consecutive years potentially points to a genuine decline in standards. The question is where has this decline come from?
First let’s debunk a few of the potential reasons put forward for the current decline.
Lack of a Winter Break?
Although still debated, it is likely that a mid-season break would help refresh teams and help them prepare for the second half of the season. However, the Premier League has never had one, and most managers have all but given up hope of one being introduced. Since Premier League clubs have had such a strong record in recent years without a winter break it is unlikely this can be given as a reason for the recent decline. In fact, the biggest improvers have been Germany, and their winter break has been shortened in recent years.
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| You call this footballing weather? |
Lack of help with fixtures?
There is undoubtedly a lack of help from the Premier League when it comes to the fixtures before European games. For example, Manchester United had to play a 4pm Sunday fixture against Everton before their last-16 match against Real Madrid. Similarly last season, Chelsea had to play their FA Cup semi-final against Spurs at 6pm on the Sunday before their Champions League semi-final against Barcelona.
Spanish, Italian, German and Portuguese teams regularly have their matches rescheduled to give them as much preparation time as possible before European fixtures, in Portugal their Champions League teams regularly play on Fridays before midweek European games. However, this disadvantage has always been in place so while it would help to change this situation, it cannot be the reason behind the current decline in performance.
The Premier League's defensive failings?
There has been a lot of criticism in the last couple of seasons regarding the openness of matches in the Premier League. It has been suggested that while leading to an entertaining spectacle, there has been a decline in the standard of defending. The almost constant moaning of Hanson and Lawrenson has been added to by the impassioned but reasoned analysis of Gary Neville on Sky.
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| They don't play like in our day Lawro |
While it’s true that the average goals per game has been on a steady increase, the goals per game in the top 3 leagues is very similar – Premier League 2.83, La Liga 2.82 and the Bundesliga 2.84, and has been on the rise across the game. The decline in defending is a universal phenomenon, not a Premier League specific one.
If you compare the top defenders of the previous generation (Cannavaro, Maldini, Stam, Nesta, Thuram, Campbell, Ferdinand etc) with those of today (Thiago Silva, Hummels, Pique, Kompany, Ramos, Chiellini), even when adjusted for a rose-tinted view of the past, it can be safely said that there has been a drop in individual defensive quality.
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| 2006 Ballon D'or... Henry? Zidane? Ronaldinho? Nope, Cannavaro |
This in not purely due to a drop in talent but also changes in the nature of the game.
Firstly, tackling laws have become progressively stricter, meaning defenders have to be more careful and less physical in contesting the ball. Secondly, the increased pace of the game, especially the speed of passing, has meant the timing of challenges has become increasingly difficult.
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| Help I've been shot! |
Thirdly, strikers have become cleverer in their movement. In the past defenders primarily had clearly defined points of attack to nullify. The traditional big no.9 and the penalty box poacher have been replaced by false-9s (Messi, Suarez, van Persie) and strikers starting from wide positions (Villa, Ronaldo, Muller), making attacking play far less predictable. This fluidity in movement has also meant an increased goal scoring threat from deeper position, with players such as, Fabregas, Mata, Ozil and Bale, often interchanging with central strikers, giving defenders more angles of attack to be concerned with.
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| The only Bale more dangerous than Messi and Ronaldo |
The increase in squad rotation has also meant consistent reliable partnerships have been harder to build – Manchester United, Manchester City, Chelsea, Arsenal and Spurs have rarely fielded a consistent centre back combination this season.
And lastly, as ball retention has become more important, the footballing skills of defensive players have increased in value. So while Gerrard Pique might have been considered a flawed defender in previous era, his ability on the ball make him a highly prized asset in the modern game. This philosophy has been taken to such as extent that his Barcelona team has often used defensive midfield players such as Sergio Busquets and Javier Mascherano at centre back.
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| Don't worry Sergio we're not actually here to do any defending |
The Actual Reasons
So if it’s not a lack of a winter break, unhelpful scheduling and bad defending to blame, why have English team performed so poorly in the last two Champions Leagues?
1. Manchester City’s failings
The low hanging fruit in this analysis is Manchester City progress being below par for a variety of reasons.
Although they have made a huge investment into their squad over the last few years, culminating in their Premier League victory in 2012, they are a club with relatively little recent European experience. While a number of their players, such as Yaya Toure, David Silva, Carlos Tevez, Samir Nasri and Sergio Aguero, had Champions League experience before joining the club, they hadn’t gathered that experience together. And Their English contingent of Joe Hart, Joleon Lescott, Gareth Barry and James Milner, had no previous experience of the competition before joining the club.
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| Woo hoo, it's pay day |
Their manager, Roberto Mancini has also had relatively little success in the Champions League. Despite winning 3 successive Scudetto with Inter, including a record breaking 97 points season, they only progressed to the Quarter-final stage of the Champions League on one occasion under his guidance. This record suggests a weakness when it comes to the more sophisticated tactical puzzles that European competition poses.
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| Balotelli: You want me to kick it in there? Mancini: Yes, between those 2 posts |
A final important factor in their lack of progress has been some difficult group stage opponents caused partly by their low UEFA ranking but mostly from bad luck in the draw. In last season’s competition, City were in pot 3, but drew a very strong Napoli team from pot 4 and Bayern Munich from pot 1. For this year’s competition they were in pot 2 but once again drew a powerhouse from pot 1 (Real Madrid) and, once again, the strongest opponent possible from pot 4 (Borussia Dortmund).
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| Knock-out blow |
Although the expectations for them were to perform better, a combination of these three factors meant they have failed to achieve those targets.
2. Managerial changes
While Mancini has a poor record in Europe, the reverse is true of Rafa Benitez and Jose Mourinho, and their loss from the Premier League was also likely a loss for their clubs performances in European competitions. In his 3 seasons at Valencia, Benitez reached the quarter finals of the UEFA cup and Champions League in his first 2 season, and then won the UEFA cup in his final season there. He then followed this up with victory in the 2005 Champions League with Liverpool, his tactical nous proving crucial to their progress with a fairly weak playing squad. He followed this up with another final in 2007 and a semi-final appearance in 2008.
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| Why won't anyone give me a job! |
Mourinho too is a renowned European specialist, and although he never reached a Champions League final during his seasons in charge of Chelsea, he did make it to the semi-finals on 2 occasions, and the team he built also went onto reach the final in the season he was fired. Adding to the renowned abilities of Alex Ferguson and Arsene Wenger, there was a golden period of managerial quality in the Premier League’s ‘top 4’ in its period of greatest success.
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| You're giving my job to that guy??! |
3. The Growth in External Threats
Probably the biggest reason for the loss in quality of the top teams has been the growth outside the Premier League, especially of Real Madrid and Barcelona.
The two Spanish giants have worked very hard at increasing their commercial revenues in recent years, with Barcelona notably selling their shirt sponsorship for the first time in their history. However, the largest reason for the disparity is the fact Spanish clubs negotiate their TV deals individually and therefore allowing for a extremely disparate distribution of broadcasting revenues.
5 years ago Real’s revenue was the highest in Europe at €351m, with Barcelona 3rd at €290m, just behind Manchester United who earned €315m. In comparison Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool were not that far behind with revenues of €283m, €264m and €207m respectively, and still therefore able to compete in the transfer market.
However, by 2012 Madrid revenues had reached €513m and Barcelona’s €483m. This far outstripped the Premier League’s closest top clubs with Manchester United coming closest with €396m and Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool only achieving modest growth over the last 5 years with 2012 revenues of €323m, €290m and €233m.
This increased financial muscle of the Spanish giants has allowed them to take some of the Premier Leagues top talents, sometimes with very aggressive methods. They also benefitted from the 'Beckham Law' which meant high earning foreigners were taxed at lower tax rates (24%) than standard higher rate income tax (previously 45% and currently 52%).
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| Blimey 24% tax... Where do I sign? |
Would Manchester United be a weak in recent years if they hadn't lost Cristiano Ronaldo to Real Madrid? Clearly not. Liverpool have obviously suffered from losses of Xabi Alonso and Javier Mascherano and similarly Luka Modric's move to Madrid was a huge blow to Tottenham's attempt to build a Champions League competing team. Arsenal's team in recent years was built around the playmaking talents of Cesc Fabregas, so his loss was a massive blow to their squad, and their lack of a combative midfielder this year was caused by the loss of Alex Song to Barcelona in the summer.
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| €40m worth of Barcelona DNA |
Added to this has been the new inflow of money from wealthy owners at clubs such as PSG and in the emerging markets, especially Russia, Ukraine and Turkey. This has yet to cause the direct loss of players to these countries, but their financial muscle has meant players who Premier League clubs had been targeting to improve their squads have slipped their grasp. Three big examples of these would be Hulk choosing Zenit St. Petersburg over Chelsea, Lucas Moura choosing PSG over Manchester United, and Wesley Sneider deciding to move to Galatasaray over one of the many Premier League clubs who showed interest in him.
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| Money talks |
4. Manchester City… again
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| You're blaming me again?? |
How do Manchester City feature twice is this analysis? Well while they have indeed under-performed in Europe, they have also done so while internally cannibalising their fellow Premier League rivals.
Chelsea were the first megabucks club on the scene who sought quick growth by making a number of quick signings. But these recruits, such as Drogba, Essien, Carvelho, Shevchenko, Crespo, Makelele, Robben, Cech, Ferreria and Mutu, came from outside of the Premier League.
And when they did sign players domestically, such as Joe Cole, Damien Duff, Scott Parker, Wayne Bridge and Shaun Wright-Phillips, it was from clubs from outside the top-6 elite, thus inflicting little or no damage to those English clubs playing in Europe at the time. In fact, by raising the standard of the competition they caused other clubs around them to raise their game and make similar big investments to compete.
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| Oh I miss the good old days... |
City however made signings directly from the top 6, such as Adebayor, Kolo Toure, Tevez, Nasri, Clichy, Lescott, Milner and Barry, causing their rivals to be weakened.
They also targeted players such as Wayne Rooney and John Terry, forcing their clubs had to use up large financial resources to keep hold of them. Would Manchester United have given Rooney his wage structure breaking deal without City on the scene? It's very unlikely, and they could have used that money for investment elsewhere.
Both United and Chelsea have also had to pay larger transfer fees and wages for signings they have made in competition with City, such as van Persie, Berbatov, Ashley Young, Fernando Torres and Edin Hazard.
The entry of City therefore has caused both an unsettling of Premier League squads and been a cost financially to the Premier League elite.
5. Transition
The reasons preceding have meant that the top clubs are in a period of transition. City are still finding their way, building their squad and their experience of playing as a collective unit at the highest level.
Chelsea's frequent managerial changes, coupled with a ageing old guard and an owner who desires a change in playing style has meant they have yet to build a new team who are yet to fully find the confidence and understanding to get consistent results playing a new style of football. Arsenal have been decimated by losing their top players to the competition both internally and abroad, causing them to rebuild their team year after year.
Manchester United have handled this process the best, mainly because of their manager. They probably would have beaten Madrid but for a poor refereeing decision, and over the two legs their younger players such as Welbeck, Jones, Evans, Rafael and Cleverly played excellently. But the loss of Ronaldo to Real Madrid still leaves a shadow over them, and the signings they have brought in have yet to replace the impact he had when they were at their peak in 2007-08.
The Future
Will things change or is the current lack of success something we should get used to?
Looking at the factors that have caused the blip it seems likely there should be a turnaround in the next few years. Manchester City are slowly gaining experience and if Mancini fails to produce again he will likely be replaced with someone who likely to bring more success in Europe with names such as Jose Mourinho and Frank de Boer linked with the job.
The managerial situation will be much harder to judge. Sir Alex could bring reign to an end at any point, while the lack of trophies at Arsenal is testing many supporters patience with Wenger. Both legendary figures will be hard to replace and could lead to a transitory phase at their clubs, but the structure and platform they have built should leave their successors in a position of strength. The situation at Chelsea can only get better from the current mayhem, while Spurs have in AVB a manager with previous success in Europe, having won the Europa League with Porto. And if Brendon Rodgers is half as good as he talks then Liverpool's rebuilding project will bear fruit in the next few years.
In terms of revenues the Premier League clubs will on a strong footing going forward. The new TV deal starting next season is a significant step-up, and although the final figures are yet to be released it should result in the title winning club receiving around £100m, compared to the current £60m windfall. This would still be short of the money Barcelona and Madrid receive from their individual deals but it will close the gap significantly, and leave them less vulnerable to losing their best players. The success of the league globally has also meant the top clubs have been able to secure a number of lucrative commercial deals, with Manchester United's shirt sponsorship deal with Chevrolet and Arsenal's new deal with Emirates breaking new ground.
The introduction of UEFA's Financial Fair Play regulations should also help the situation. Given the rules are based around revenue generation then Premier League clubs should be in a strong position given 7 of the current top 20 European clubs by revenue are from the Premier League. And assuming UEFA apply it strictly it should inhibit PSG's extravagant spending using funds from outside of the club. We have also seen it's impact in the more modest spending of Manchester City last summer, which should help minimise their cannibalisation impact going forward.
All these factors should help with the current natural development of the playing squads, allowing them a period of stability and growth that should bode well for future performance. Yes the last two seasons have been disappointing and have marked the end of an era, but next year can be the beginning of a new one.
