This weekend's fixtures will be the last in the Premier League for 2011 and also represents the midway point of what promises to be one of the most exciting seasons ever. With 18 games gone both Manchester clubs are locked on 45 points and a win for either club would leave them on a record points total after 19 games, equaling Manchester United's 1993/94 season.
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| Can we buy it? Yes we can! |
Most pundits (and bookmakers) are predicting that Manchester City's depth and quality of squad will be the telling factor in the run-in and will lead them to a first top division league title since 1967-68. However, on the Boxing Day MOTD Messrs. Shearer and Lawrenson put forward the conventional wisdom that Manchester United should not be counted out given they are always stronger in second half of the season. Shearer stated, "they always get better in the second half of the season don't they", while Lawrenson noted "what we know about Manchester United at this time of the season, course and distance, always." The question is, is this widely held belief actually true?
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| Surely Shearer and Lawrenson can't know more than me |
Having analysed data from every Premier League season it is true to say that United have averaged more points in the second half of seasons (42.3 points) than the first (40.5 points). They have also scored more points in the second half of 11 of the 19 seasons since the Premier League stated. However, does a 2 point difference really justify the conventional wisdom? Interestingly their main rivals, Arsenal and Liverpool, also have a higher points average in the second halves of seasons (Arsenal 37 vs 35.6, Liverpool 33.8 vs 33.6), which suggests United's success might be more a factor of their points haul across the season.
A closer look, however, shows United's second half form has been crucial to their success. If the season had ended at the halfway point then United would have only won 7 Premier League titles and not the 12 they have done. While in 5 of the seasons they scored less points in the second half, they still finished top of the pile, suggesting they may have taken their foot off the gas with the medals in the bag. Their run-in form has therefore been crucial to making Manchester United the most successful team in Premier League history.
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| We knocked them off their perch! |
Some of these championships have been won by outstanding comebacks and support the belief that they come good when it matters. 1992/93, the first Premiership season, was memorable for Steve Bruce's Easter brace in the last 5 minutes against Sheffield Wednesday, a win that was part of a 7 game winning streak to finish the season and produce United's first championship in 26 years. 1995/96 was notable for Eric Cantona's return from his infamous 8 month ban to help haul United back from a 12 point deficit to Newcastle and bring back the trophy to Old Trafford.
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| I'd luv it if we beat them, luv it |
1n 1998/99 United went unbeaten in all competitions from Boxing Day onwards, with memorable victories against Arsenal in the FA Cup, Tottenham on the final day of the Premier League season, and Bayern Munich in the Champions league final to seal a historic treble. While in 2002/3 they finished with 15 wins and 3 draws to overhaul an 8 point deficit over Arsenal to regain their title in sublime fashion. Finally, in 2008/9 they produced a superb second half haul of 49 points to deny Liverpool a first Premier League. It was a season characterised by Rafa Benitez's "I want to talk about facts" rant, which highlights the importance of mental strength when the pressure is on. These superb performances from Manchester United highlight a strength of character that winners in all fields have, and is critical in the high pressure moments of a championship run-in.
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| I'm not playing mind games, just discussing facts |
However, there have also been many instances where even Fergie's men haven't produced the results when it mattered. In 1995 a win against West Ham on the final day of the season would've been enough to deliver them a third successive championship - but they could only achieve a draw, handing the title to Kenny Dalglish's Blackburn Rovers. In the 1997/98 season, United held a 10 point lead over the eventual champions Arsenal at the halfway stage, but succumbed to 5 losses in the second half and were pipped by Arsene Wenger's men. In 2003-4 United led the race with a superb 46 points after 19 games, but were only the 7th best performing team in the run-in, being outperformed by Newcastle and Bolton, and finished 3rd overall behind Arsenal's 'invincibles' and an upcoming Chelsea. And while they were narrowly the best performing side in second half of the 2009-10 season, a crucial home loss in a high pressure April decider against Chelsea saw the title return back to the Bridge.
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| We are invincible Ruud, invincible! |
This leaves current rivals Manchester City with some hope. While United have shown superb quality in many title run-ins, they have also failed to deliver on numerous occasions, especially when their team is going through a transition phase. Their current squad includes a number of new players, but one consistent feature of the clubs Premiership history is their legendary manager. Sir Alex does seem to have the ability to make the Manchester United shirt possess magical qualities, whoever is wearing it, and his team are often greater than the sum of their parts. So while Mancini might have the better individual players at his disposal the season has a long way to run, and Ferguson's know-how and experience of dealing with high intensity situations could prove crucial when the pressure is on.
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| Sorry Tevez but Aguero is better |
So do Manchester United always get better in the second half of the season? Not always, but enough times for their rivals to be worried.
Surely Kiko Macheda's goal against Aston Villa in the 08/09 season deserves a mention when you talk about high pressure situations particularly within modern premier league football. I would also add the moments mentioned about United failing to deliver 2nd half of seasons have also been at times when they had missed key players such as Cantona 95, Keane 98, Rio 04 and Rooney 2010. Obviously it goes without saying all clubs can point to missing key players but it is hard to find situations when United have failed when their main players are involved hence why 2002 was a significant season when Arsenal went to Old Trafford and clinched the title as the United line up included Scholes, Keane, Veron, Giggs and Van Nistelrooy. That is why the loss of Vidic for the remainder of this season could be pivotal come the end of the season and might well be the difference between the manchester clubs.
ReplyDeleteIndeed 08/09 saw a terrific run-in from United as mentioned in the post, not just for Macheda's goal but the 8 wins in the final 9 games of that season.
ReplyDeleteInteresting comment regarding key players missing. This would suggest that there is a limit to a manager's influence and like all clubs the loss of a key player can be enough to throw a title chase off track. Certainly as deep as City's squad seems on paper, they would be far weaker without Silva and/or Kompany.